i think this sums it up very concisely:


A few observations from government-provided documents on the deceased in Italy.

* Median of all registered positive cases of COVID: 64 yo
* Median of all registered death related to COVID: 81 yo
* Number of registered deaths related to COVID under 40: 2 (one obese diabetes patient with a psychiatric background and one with a carcinoma)
* Number of registered death related to COVID under 50: 4
* Male deaths versus female deaths: 75% vs. 25%
* 46,1% of approx. 8.000 cases where this data is gathered experiences only mild symptoms. 5,0% critical, 24,9% severe
* Of all registered deaths related to COVID in Italy, 1,1% has no comorbidity, 26% has 1 prior exisiting illness, 25% had 2 and 47% has 3 or more comorbidities
* The most common comorbodities included high blood pressure 76,5%(!!!) kidney failure: 17%, cardiovascular issues (CHD) 37%, diabetes (37%) but also known carcinoma in the last 5 years 19% and COPD 9,7%

A few personal observations and thoughts (I have lived in both Valle d’Aosta as well as Piemonte and am hearing first-hand stories from people on the ground, including doctors):

* Population in Italy is old and older generations seem don’t seem to be in good condition
* There is no active voluntary euthenasia meaning older people with health issues are kept alive indefinitely
* The Po plain seems to be most heavily affected; this one of Europe’s areas most hit by air pollution. Correcting for population the regions in the north on the Po plain seem to be disproportionally hit. Region further towards the middle and the South of Italy that also have larger cities are (also corrected for population) less hit than North. It seems obvious that urban areas would be hit harder, but air quality also seems to play a role IMO
* The CFR that currently according to these documents is at 5,8% IMO is primarily so high due to the above reasons and the fact that it is so concentrated in a few areas. The hospital system in these areas in completely overloaded, which is confirmed by stories of people I get from Italy (Bergamo for example).
* It is hard to keep track of an accurate CFR further in an epidemic. As widespread testing stops to focus all efforts on providing care for patients the data changes and the *perceived* death rate rises. But more and more people will contract COVID and not register at all. Various countries have various testing protocols. In The Netherlands testing was very limited from the start. Only those with symptoms and obvious traces to prior outbreak areas were tested. Testing has now stopped for those with mild symptoms.

co-author of The End of More, in paperback and kindle on Amazon http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00D0ADPFY email pagett.communications@blueyonder.co.uk

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