Employment needs a fuel supply
using 19mbd of oil means just that — -the oil is consumed, one way or another to drive the commercial infrastructure of the USA as it is with all other industrial nations. Exported or used domestically is irrelevant. Putting it in cars or making plastic bottles is also irrelevant.
What is relevant is that it is necessary to consume fuel in order to create employment
Every product has a fossil fuel component within it.
If that FF input ceases, then commercial traffic ceases, and ‘’business’’ comes to an end.
When that happens (not if), employment as we know it ceases, because we can no longer make ‘stuff’ to buy and sell to each other. Our current existence is predicated on trade, we know know other way.
Without trade, collapse is then certain, and with it, violent civil disorder, (because the majority of people refuse to accept that this is anything other than a political problem.) resulting from that, martial law and military dictatorship — -hence the title of the article “From oilslick to tyranny”. The progression from one to the other seems clear cut and obvious. We will not have a gentle transition for an oil economy to a non oil economy as the majority seem to think.
The transition will be resisted violently.
Yes I did read your link. The dates offered are as vague as my own (up to 2040 etc) but the Btu figures appear to confirm mine , that energy imports are twice energy exports.
In any event, the figures given are predicated on high oil prices, or low prices — -or maybe something in between.
Quote:potential to eliminate net U.S. energy imports sometime between 2020 and 2030.
Demonstrating that the next 20 years are unpredictable. Oil usage will fall, because it will become unaffordable. Towards 2030 imported oil is also likely to become unavailable. Do you really think Canada (a cold country) will continue to supply the USA with oil?
This will not allow the rise of ‘alternatives’ because alternative energy systems cannot fully function outside a(unaffordable) hydrocarbon based environment. As with most forecasts in this field, they examine the forecast as if events will occur in isolation — -which they will not. They never do.
Hence my references to transitional violence.